Як нове розуміння конфлікту впливає на позицію Вашингтона? Чи може Вашингтон стати арбітром у перемовинах? Як зміни у Пентагоні вплинуть на глобальну безпеку?
Девід Тафурі, американський юрист, письменник і фахівець із зовнішньої політики, партнер міжнародної юридичної фірми Arent Fox, колишній посадовець Держдепу США, відповів на запитання глядачів та читачів. Перший канал (International) наводить деталі.
Вплив внутрішньополітичної кризи у США на зовнішню політику
Девід Тафурі вважає, що тимчасове припинення роботи уряду США не матиме суттєвого впливу на питання безпеки та міжнародного співробітництва.
«Частини уряду США, що є важливими для безпеки та національної безпеки, зазвичай продовжують функціонувати навіть під час припинення роботи уряду. Державний департамент, Рада національної безпеки, Міністерство оборони США, Пентагон – ці люди визнані необхідними, і вони продовжуватимуть працювати».
Реформи у Пентагоні: новий курс чи політичний театр?
Аналітик прокоментував незвичайні збори, ініційовані міністром оборони Пітом Геґсетом, за участю сотень військових керівників.
«Я думаю, що це мало також намір показати міцність керівництва в Пентагоні, щоб нагадати генералам, що вони приймають накази від головнокомандувача».
Тафурі зазначив, що подібні заходи спрямовані на посилення дисципліни та відповідності в армійському керівництві.
Зміна риторики Трампа щодо конфлікту в Україні: від чуток до реальної політики
Експерт вказав на еволюцію поглядів американського президента, яка, на його думку, є наслідком глибшого розуміння ситуації.
«Я думаю, що зараз він намагається вжити певних заходів, щоб примусити сторони піти до столу переговорів добросовісно, і озвучити потенційні загрози того, що може статися, якщо сторони цього не зроблять».
Перший канал (International) раніше вже вказував, що ця зміна відображає новий — більш реалістичний підхід — до міжнародної дипломатії.
Європейська солідарність та енергетична незалежність
Обговорюючи питання енергетичних санкцій, Тафурі зазначив, що більшість європейських країн вже значно зменшили залежність від російських енергоносіїв.
«Але в той же час реальність така, що не всі країни ЄС, які купували нафту і газ у Росії, припинили це робити».
Перспективи прямого діалогу як шлях до миру
Найважливішим висновком інтерв’ю стала думка про необхідність прямого діалогу для досягнення стабільного миру.
«Щоб фактично мати реальне припинення вогню, яке б дійсно дотримувалося, це вимагатиме певної дипломатії безпосередньо між Україною та Росією».
Тафурі вважає, що Дональд Трамп може виступити посередником у таких перемовинах через свої стосунки з обома лідерами.
Висновки Девіда Тафурі вказують на поступове усвідомлення американською адміністрацією складної природи конфлікту та прагнення знайти реальні шляхи його вирішення. Його аналіз підкреслює, що без прямого діалогу між усіма зацікавленими сторонами стійкий мир неможливий. Еволюція поглядів Трампа, як про це свідчить експерт, може створити нові можливості для дипломатії та деескалації.
Повна версія онлайн-спілкування – на відео.

11 коментарів
about time Trump turned around . putin and his team were always playing him. once a lier always a lier !!!
Trump is actually a very simple man. He believes in making personal connections with people, and he believes making money is the grandest purpose in life. So he thinks that if he can just talk to Putin on friendly terms they’ll make a personal connection, and then it will be easy to make a business deal that will be profitable for both the US and Russia (forget about Ukraine and its interests, Trump is only interested in those he sees as powerful!). He does not understand that Putin (1) does not trust anyone and counts absolutely no-one as his «friend», and (2) that Putin has no interest in making money, or in what is good for Russia and its citizens. Putin wants to create his legacy as the «Tsar» that rebuilt the Russian empire. Putin wants Russian history books to call him «Putin the Great». And it seems Trump has finally realized Putin is not talking his language of transactional profiteering, and that Putin has merely been pretending and stalling and playing him for time. And another thing about Trump, is that he has a very big and very fragile ego, and is known to be extremely vindictive when he feels betrayed. Putin has made Trump look like a fool. Even though Trump does this to himself every time he opens his mouth it is still a great affront to him when others disrespect him like Putin has done. He will not forget it.
You can say whatever you like about President Putin he has to do whatever it’s take to protect his country
It is so foolish and dangerous to keep pushing a nation have the largest nuclear bomb in the world thinking you can decapitate it using Ukraine as sacrificial goat
Wow! What stunningly beautiful women in Ukraine! And so intelligent! Speaking so many different languages! These questions, though they appear somewhat simple or even simplistic, are an excellent thumb-nail sketch of what is happening right at this moment in Ukraine vis-a-vis USA foreign policy! A “snapshot in time”, as it were! The deeper question (which was somewhat glossed over) is the outright hypocrisy of the EU not only to continue to support Russia (directly or indirectly) through the purchase of oil/gas/nuclear energy even to this very hour(!), but the cat-and-mouse game of offering Ukraine membership in the EU, without seriously making good on their promises! These unwritten “rules of the game” (bleeding Ukraine dry of its manpower and resources, while not giving Ukraine sufficient weapons for a clear-cut victory) may result in a victory of sorts, but, alas, it seems it will be but a pyrrhic victory, at best! For shame! Ukraine deserves so much better than to be treated as little more than a “have-not” nation. End the hypocrisy! End the emotional abuse of an entire nation! Stop being spectators (watching a gladiator sport!)! Declare a no-fly zone over all of Ukraine! And for The Love of Heaven: STOP giving aid to the enemy! Bite the bullet and send troops (“volunteers”) to Ukraine just as North Korea sends troops to aid in Putin’s war! Perhaps, Charlie Chaplin said it best?! (see, below)
Charlie Chaplin’s Appeal to UNITE the world against ALL Dictators
[The Great Dictator/1940: 4 minutes]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBPtYGV205Q
Cease fire? NO!
Putin will violate it. Putin must be defeated resoundedly,
Rutte MUST trigger Article 5. Here’s how:
There are only two security guarantees:
Ukraine in NATO.
Putin dead or captured.
Rutte MUST trigger Article 5. NOW! Here’s how:
It is great many things are going well for Ukraine and bad for Russia
And that some Republicans are now calling it correctly.
And that Ukraine is now giving Russia a taste of their own medicine.
The PURL initiative is great.
The best strategy is to find ways to reinforce this momentum. More in a minute.
It is also great that Europe has stopped hallucinating that a peace “deal” with a dememted war criminal is POSSIBLE.
Putin will NEVER honor it.
But has PPOTUS stopped hallucinating? (Trump = Putin’s Puppet of the United States.)
There has been hope. His attedance to the NATO summit and the approval of the additional tough sanctions, and now, weapons, are steps in the right direction.
It has been almost hopeless as he was being more and more PPPOTUS. (Pathetic Putin’s Puppet of the United States.)!
Other than that, all he has done is to offer Putin another 10 days!
And nother 10 days…
That Trump is now meeting the war criminal in Alaska does not change that.
What a useless (and expensive) stunt! SHAME, SHAME, SHAME!
Bottom line, besides sanctions and giving Putin ALL he wants, Trump has NO plan!
Another problem has been that NONE his pusillanimous sycophants has had the courage to tell this “Emperor” that he has NO clothes.
We need to help him save face. We need a Plan “B”.
Three years later, there are still only two guarantees:
1. Ukraine in NATO
2. Putin dead or captured
And the fastest way is for NATO to declare the war. That is the best Plan “B”.
This has been true for 3 years. It was true when Stoltenberg was in charge.
I tried. I tried.
Now, Rutte and Trump can do it. Bet on Rutte.
BECAUSE WHO KNOWS IF PPOTUS REALLY GOT IT.
The best thing Zelensky and NATO can do is to thank PPPOTUS for all he has done, get all current proposals DONE, and start the Plan “B”.
In the meantime, yes, Zelensky, keep attacking Russia with drones.
Do not bother wirh ceasefires Russia will NEVER honor.
And yes, keep Putin’s assassination attempts going.
I hope they get him soon.
Maybe his own generals will do it.
That would be fine.
Do not count on PPOTUS to stop hallucinating. He may. He may not.
Again, with this Plan “B”, ending the war SOON is up to NATO now. Up to Rutte.
SOON!
YOU DON’T NOGOTIATE WITH A DEMENTED WAR CRIMINAL.
Article 5 is the key.
Trump or not, WW III has already started.
(Putin will not leave Ukraine voluntarily.
There are only two ways to “convince” him:
1. Eliminate him, or
2. Capture him.
The time for the coup de grâce is NOW!
Again, NATO’s membership IS a guarantee for Ukraine.
And article 5 is the key.
Again, ignore PPOTUS for now..
But how long will NATO’s membership take?
The other guarantee is, again, Putin dead or captured.
NATO can do that in 30 days. If Rutte declares the war.
Again, WW III has already started.
It must be declared.
That is the best Plan “B”
GET NATO TO DECLARE THE WAR!
NATO is the key now.
NATO must not wait.
NATO must act. NOW!
THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM THAT EVERYBODY IS MISSING IS THAT THE WAR IS NOT DECLARED!
And Rutte is the one with the power to declare it NOW.
Bill Browder and others have nailed it: Putin needs the war to stay in power.
And yes, he will kill his own citizens to achieve this.
Xi Jing Ping (or whoever replaces him) needs the war to drag to continue weakening the United States.
So, every day that war is not declared, NATO is playing Putin’s and Xi Jing Ping’s game.
Enough!
Come on!
Biden helped a lot. And now Trump too. But not enough. In essence, give Ukraine enough not to be defeted, but not enough to WIN!
It is NATO’s turn now.
The fastest way to allow Rutte to declare war is to revise Article 5, which states that “if a NATO member is attacked, all other member countries are obligated to consider it an attack on themselves and to assist the attacked country.”
The revision needed is to add, “Or a country neighboring a member country is attacked.”
Thus, we have:
“If a NATO member is attacked, or a country neighboring a member country is attacked, all other member countries are obligated to consider it an attack on themselves and to assist the attacked country.”
This will trigger Article 5.
Now, how to get it passed with 100% of the votes?
The first thing to remember is that these are dangerous times—they are NOT normal times.
In normal times, you follow protocols 100%.
This is what Stoltenberg was doing. And now Rutte.
FLUNK! FLUNK! FLUNK!
Getting bombed every night IS NOT NORMAL!!!
It is DANGER!!
In dangerous times, you bypass habits and normal routines.
One more time: Bypass habits and normal routines.
Very simple. Let’s say you take Main Street to go to work every day. (Normal.)
But today it is flooded. (Danger.)
If you follow your normal routine and attempt to cross it, you could drown.
(IE: three years of death and destruction.)
So, no. You bypass your daily routine and go around through higher ground.
See? In dangerous conditions, you bypass habits and normal routines.
This is what NATO has to do.
So, Rutte puts the revision up for a vote, with the provision that, since a “NO” vote will allow Putin to continue his destructive invasion and war crimes, any “NO” vote must be accompanied by $1,000,000.00 US to be considered.
Orban will be out in the first round. Pay up or shut up.
This $1,000,000.00 will be given to Zelensky to use as he sees fit.
The USA may be able come up with the $1,000,000.00 in the first round. Fine.
Rutte puts the revision for a vote again in two weeks.
Why? Rutte has to say: “These are dangerous times. We have to bypass habits and normal routines.”
Keep at it EVERY TWO WEEKS until he gets a 100% vote.
Then, immediately, NATO declares war on Russia.
Once war is declared, ALL restrictions are off.
Ukraine can strike inside Russia anywhere with Western weapons with zero considerations.
European economies can go unapologetically on a war footing and churn out the needed weapons and ammo 24/7.
NATO can put boots on the ground.
China, Iran, and North Korea, India can and Brazil can be blockaded.
Tump already stated he will honor Article 5. Great.
As soon as possible, NATO commanders go to the Pentagon to plan the strategy.
I am not a military person.
But I would love to see the Russian Air Force and air defenses wiped out. COMPLETELY.
Then NATO paratroopers can jump behind enemy lines and pin the Russians between two fires.
Bring the Navajos back so that the Russians cannot understand what, where, or when.
The Russians will not learn Navajo in the one month it will take to get it done.
PUTIN’S GAME WILL BE OVER BY THEN.
Ukraine gets its territories back.
And, as compensation, among other things, Siberia. Yes! And call it “New Ukraine.”
If anyone has a better, faster solution, I would love to see it.
Anybody who doesn’t should jump on this bandwagon NOW!
I mean NOW! NOW! NOW!
Let’s go!
The clock is ticking!
Why is it that everyone believe that Trump is all that so to survive you have to kiss his ass
Government shutdowns happen no matter what political party has the White House. I’m not defending Trump. Just making an observation.
Ukraine is a corrupt country and they discriminate against the people from other countries the go to help them with the war
lol, real reason for bringing the generals to emergency briefing very likely has to do with ET visitors especially 3I/Atlas
I feel Pres Trump knew Putin would not budge and let the world witness to blame him now for Ukraine dismantling Russia
This guy was way off on what Hegseth speech was about.
If you want real perspective watch the review Ryan McBeth (Military Intelligence Analyst) said about it on YouTube
https://youtu.be/RaaFziNxvuw?si=JGMi4hieeGp1AC‑D
That was beautiful how you noted how Ukrainians understand (and keep in mind) Trump and MAGA’s position on Russia.